Week 3 Preview: Royal Randwick on September 2nd, 2023

We just missed last week with our bet with Call Me Di Second and our other bet Powerful Peg pulling up lame

This week I thought It was another minefield. I was going to preview the Furious stakes and tip people Cigar Flick and Tiz Invincible but just a potential map issue turns me off Cigar Flick slightly so I’ll continue to focus on races where I think the favourite is Vulnerable and that has to be the Chemslford Stakes where I take on one of my favourite horses in Think It Over

Firstly we look at the track

Randwick 4m rail with 15ml for the week should see lanes 3+ the best spot to be in the straight- especially as the card progresses

Expected Speed- : Above average ( meaning they all get their chance)


Think it Over



He was solid resuming after 18 months but that wasn’t a real race in that there was no tempo and it was purely a 400m sprint home- he comes up favourite here and whilst no one doubts his class I would suggest he will be a touch flat today and I thought what he did first up was only average for a horse of his class- whilst he also gets a map favour im keen to oppose the champ



Forward Midfield

Im really surprised they raced on as he has been made to do everything in his races last prep and that is a bad sign- he resumed in in the sit and sprint and went disgusting- very confident this horse doesn’t want to give his all anymore and his gone – his only hope was some gear changes and a stand over rider and he gets none of that

Knights Order



He needs another lap and wet- he has none

Bold Mac



This is one horse who is in form- loves firm ground and did win here in July running slick time- he can’t win but he is a value play for wide exotics

Hoo ya Mai


Midfield or Back

There were glimpses of a good horse when he was in the UK- he has some proper form over there- and interestingly he looks to have been given the Firoente treatment with lots of work- trials and don’t be surprised if he runs some sort of race- we want to see some betting confidence pre-race but if there is more than happy to include him- most maps have him out the back and being a little horse I think this is his time to do something early in a prep- don’t discount him

Navajo Peak


Forward midfield may be working wide

He is a super honest horse but he is outclassed here



On Pace

He is a Group 1 winner but this distance is too short for him- on pace is okay but he didn’t let down at all 1st up so hard to entertain

Major Beel


On Pace

The Derby Winner is now 2nd up here but for mine he is a wet track only type- his 2 on firm he has been well beaten 5 lens and 4.6 lens in lower Grades- pass



Back marker

Another Group 1 Derby Winner but that day he found a poor race and 7 day back up he has no real form- a bad racing style ( get back) and is hard to like here



Back Marker

She was clearly ready first up – getting Blinkers and was in that big bunched finish- she was a sneaky good run there running 12th best L600 and 7th best L200. She hasn’t seen a firm track since October 2022 but her old form says firm is good and being by this super sire in Shamus Award they generally handle anything – probably sits 3w at the rear of the field but she is going well and is an each way hope



Most maps will have her Back but I think maybe midfield with Jmac and some intent

Her run was staggeringly good 1st up but the issue is she hasn’t won a race since March 2022- I think they will be more positive from the low draw and be midfield and she looks airborne. This looks like a perfect race for her with not much opposition and she has to be the one to beat




Worse than Midfield

If we are talking about non-winners – then this filly hasn’t won since February 2022 and her only good track win was Toowoomba in January 2021-She is a genuine none winner for mine – gets the tricky gate and looks to be the other horse under the odds


On a day where there are plenty of traps I’d be betting the following way


Montefilla 4 units bet late

Duais 1 unit $10

Betting Profit for the 2 weeks is minus $3.40


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