Week 3 Preview: Royal Randwick on September 2nd, 2023
We just missed last week with our bet with Call Me Di Second and our other bet Powerful Peg pulling up lame
This week I thought It was another minefield. I was going to preview the Furious stakes and tip people Cigar Flick and Tiz Invincible but just a potential map issue turns me off Cigar Flick slightly so I’ll continue to focus on races where I think the favourite is Vulnerable and that has to be the Chemslford Stakes where I take on one of my favourite horses in Think It Over
Firstly we look at the track
Randwick 4m rail with 15ml for the week should see lanes 3+ the best spot to be in the straight- especially as the card progresses
Expected Speed- : Above average ( meaning they all get their chance)
Think it Over
$2.70
Midfield
He was solid resuming after 18 months but that wasn’t a real race in that there was no tempo and it was purely a 400m sprint home- he comes up favourite here and whilst no one doubts his class I would suggest he will be a touch flat today and I thought what he did first up was only average for a horse of his class- whilst he also gets a map favour im keen to oppose the champ
Mounga
$12
Forward Midfield
Im really surprised they raced on as he has been made to do everything in his races last prep and that is a bad sign- he resumed in in the sit and sprint and went disgusting- very confident this horse doesn’t want to give his all anymore and his gone – his only hope was some gear changes and a stand over rider and he gets none of that
Knights Order
$26
Leader
He needs another lap and wet- he has none
Bold Mac
$41
Midfield
This is one horse who is in form- loves firm ground and did win here in July running slick time- he can’t win but he is a value play for wide exotics
Hoo ya Mai
$26
Midfield or Back
There were glimpses of a good horse when he was in the UK- he has some proper form over there- and interestingly he looks to have been given the Firoente treatment with lots of work- trials and don’t be surprised if he runs some sort of race- we want to see some betting confidence pre-race but if there is more than happy to include him- most maps have him out the back and being a little horse I think this is his time to do something early in a prep- don’t discount him
Navajo Peak
$51
Forward midfield may be working wide
He is a super honest horse but he is outclassed here
Linderman
$15
On Pace
He is a Group 1 winner but this distance is too short for him- on pace is okay but he didn’t let down at all 1st up so hard to entertain
Major Beel
$23
On Pace
The Derby Winner is now 2nd up here but for mine he is a wet track only type- his 2 on firm he has been well beaten 5 lens and 4.6 lens in lower Grades- pass
Manzoice
$46
Back marker
Another Group 1 Derby Winner but that day he found a poor race and 7 day back up he has no real form- a bad racing style ( get back) and is hard to like here
Duais
$10
Back Marker
She was clearly ready first up – getting Blinkers and was in that big bunched finish- she was a sneaky good run there running 12th best L600 and 7th best L200. She hasn’t seen a firm track since October 2022 but her old form says firm is good and being by this super sire in Shamus Award they generally handle anything – probably sits 3w at the rear of the field but she is going well and is an each way hope
Montefilla
$4.40
Most maps will have her Back but I think maybe midfield with Jmac and some intent
Her run was staggeringly good 1st up but the issue is she hasn’t won a race since March 2022- I think they will be more positive from the low draw and be midfield and she looks airborne. This looks like a perfect race for her with not much opposition and she has to be the one to beat
Hinged
$4.60
Worse than Midfield
If we are talking about non-winners – then this filly hasn’t won since February 2022 and her only good track win was Toowoomba in January 2021-She is a genuine none winner for mine – gets the tricky gate and looks to be the other horse under the odds
On a day where there are plenty of traps I’d be betting the following way
Montefilla 4 units bet late
Duais 1 unit $10
Betting Profit for the 2 weeks is minus $3.40
