Week 4 Preview: Rosehill, Sheraco Stakes.
Racing Returns to Rosehill This weekend and last weekend saw us again pick the market correctly which is very important when trying to make a profit but unfortunately, the wrong horse won
Taking our profit to minus 8.6 units
It doesn’t get any easier at Rosehill this week with showers around but here we go below
This weekend there has been plenty of showers around Sydney but as of Friday Lunchtime the track has had 3.5ml of rain and 6ml for the week
TRACK: Given the recent rain I suggest the riders will be quick to get off the inside but recent history suggests firm the fence will be more than ok
I have decided to focus on the Sheraco Stakes but was close to previewing the Ming Dynasty as I thought Tom Kitten looked a risk but went this way
TEMPO: Above average
Atishu
$51
Last
Any more rain will suit this mare but this will be too short
Espiona
$17
Out the back
A Group 1 Winner over 1500m and 4 of the 5 wins have been over 1400 plus. She looks to be airborne in those trials – restrained in both trials
Zougotcha
$8
Out the back of box seat even
Amazingly its had 10 starts for 5 wins but gets Blinkers for the first time- She was more than solid first up when not suited and the BLKS do give her the opportunity to be much closer here- This ones map is most interesting as if they show intent it will be a good sign. She has a Group 2 wins when fresh ( 77 days) but most of her wins have been over 1400-1600m range so whilst you can include in exotics it might be still too short for her today
Sunshine in Paris
$10
Midfield
Her claim to fame is a nose win in the Group 1 Surrond Stakes- she is lightly raced and should get a nice run outside Zapeteo. I thought her trials have been only fair ( behind I am me and asked to do something) and 1st trial was behind Queen of the Ball- For mine I think she is a risk today and not sure if she has come up
Zapateo
$2.40
Stalking the leading pack
Comes here first up of a Winter prep in Adelaide where it ran multiple Group 1 placings. With 7 wins from 18 and 6 placings you know its going to be in the finish but I could make an argument the form is a bit “hollow” around it. If its genuine wet track I want to back her- but if it is dead to good I want to oppose her mainly at the price as I feel she is a more effective horse at 1200m when on wet ground rather than firmer
I am Me
$3.10
On speed but may be asked to work to get the lead
Interesting horse- her career has seen her find 3 rain-affected tracks- the first was a Listed 1400m and she was well beaten albeit at $21 and btn 6 lens. The next she was $3.80 at Scone in a Listed event that was rated a 7 officially but my times said more a dead 4- – she only ran 4th there btn 1.9 lens but had her chance. Then her last run was a 1200m Flemington down the straight btn 8 lens – all her other wins have been on almost bone-dry surfaces.- her mid-prep trial after a solid win ( not against much) was good beating Sunshine in Paris easily. Given the surface is likely to be affected if we see a dead 5 or worse I want to be right against her- but on the firmer side she is the one- so a hard horse to have this far out
Queen of the Ball
$10
She should lead on the fence
Stable is going better than I thought at 25% the last 90 days. The last metro race it won was in July 2022 so that’s a concern- I thought she was very good last start at Randwick over 1100m and I see she had the Equilox gear change which is a sign the feet are not much good. This issue is that first up race was run at walking tempo and whilst the sprint home was good – it was entitled to be but she did it on slightly inferior ground- I think she has a good chance
More Secrets
$41
Out the back
As she has got older she has lost her gate speed and that will be enough in this field to put her out of play. The highest race she has won is a BM 72 ( midweek) so is horribly placed here and not for me
Cinderella Days
$26
Outside leader
Gets a horrible run here- outside leader is the worst spot in racing
Stuck on the inside but was weakest late, especially that last 200m. This horse has never won a Saturday race so a big ask to think it can win a Group 2 – its also horrible in under the conditions so happy to put a pen through it
So there we have it lots of question marks in this field. In terms of ratings the best horse rating wise in the race officially is Zapateo but 1200m and if firmer I think she looks too short
Betting wise with a few question marks I’m going to have 5 units on Queen of the ball for the place in a wide-open race with too many question marks
