The 2400m Colin Stephan Rosehill Gardens
Zaaki just went down last week and I have to say that WFA form in Sydney looks all very suss- its well know Zaaki has been gone for the best part of 18 months and to be run down by a horse 3rd up off 500 days who whilst had been finishing close has been racing with at least one flat tyre gives a very ‘stinky feel to the form”
Again we got the market right last week but its about winners for the bottom line and im as useless as a ashtray on a motorbike at present so lets try and turn it around
I’ll focus on the 2400m Colin Stephan as the young horses look to be tricky to read and a limited crew with nothing much between them and I like to try and take on a false favourite which I think the Colin Stephan Provides
Track: We have a 2m rail and 24ml of irrigation for the week – no wind and expecting a good track – therefore – the last 2m good track was the 23rd of March- which saw the early races really avoid the inside of the track but as the day progressed ( and dried out ?) the winners where able to come up in the inside
I’d suggest we will have a on speed suiting horses midfield or better
Race Pace : Below average
One rule I always follow for 2400m racing is a horse MUST have had a recent run 2100 or closer in this prep- 2400m is a different pain barrier and having that “grounding or conditioning run is vital”
Alegron
$15
3w Worse than Midfield
Last win was September 2022- he has no wins in his recent career on firm ground. His recent run in the Newcastle cup- his last 200m was horrendous- I love the 8 days between but I think he is having a lend which is why they have found Nash . He did start $10 in a Caulfield Cup last year and the rider change is key
Desert Icon
$6
On speed
Last win was 23rd September 2022- – his only win this distance range was June in Salisbury the UK- he had the perfect run at Newcastle and was good there to run 4th- all his recent runs have been this distance range and he looks primed to run well here if he can break his hudoo – The Great Ryan Moore Rides so that’s worth many lengths
Sir Lucan
$11
On Speed
One the best training efforts ever to get this horse to win a race 1st up off 487 days at 2000m Back in march- but since then he has been very steady
Fancy Man
$17
On Speed
Last win was February 2022 at dirty rotten Lingfield – he has some talent but for mine he races like he has more issues than Dan Andrews!
The fact he lands on speed and he comes out of being close in the suicide tempo race of a few weeks ago when only 2nd up suggests this is his day to do something
True Marvel
$51
Forward of midfield
A real one pacer with his last win November 2021- over 3800m at Mooney Valley- not for me
Athabascan
$4.20
Midfield but wide?
He is a last start winner and at 2400m- but he has no wins in his career on a firm deck-and they want us to take $3.90. The win last start saw him win with the 102nd quickest last 600m on the card- the 101st quickest Last 400 and L200m- so harder savaged the line- – he was able to do this thanks to some horrible front running rides – happy to pot him on that basis alone
Al Aabir
$4.20
Worse than midfield the fence
7 day back up is great – but he hasn’t seen 2400m or this range at all this prep- that Kingston Town Stakes race was a ripper last week run in slick time but he did give up meekly. The Listed win he won here- in June ( beating Desert Icon) has seen 20 subsequent runners from the race for 0 winners – ina race run 28 lens below average its harder a reliable form reference and again the $4.20 looks awful skinny
Southern France
$101
Wide on speed torrid run
This horse is missing a zero- – he is desperate for the jumps and his last win was November 2019- – two hopes for him Buckleys and None- even with the wonder Kid Dylan Gibbons engaged- – I do like they tried something last prep in trying to “send him” but he only ended up being a bunny for them to chase down-
Verona
$4.50
Last the fence
I hate the map for him if they walk – back the fence buried – but he is a lst start winner at the distance and Track which is a plus albeit at 21/1- very firm ground has proven good for him in the past so no issues there- the worry is he comes from that Athabascan race which looks no good- given he “Cheated” and did no work in that race his sectionals are still poor- 101st quickest l600 and 96th quickest L400 and L200 so hardly the run of a horse who can go up in class and do something
Fays Angel
$126
Midfield fence
7 day back up is a positive and had her chance LS in the 2300m race at NCLE – might not finish last but wont be far off em
Outlandos
$20
Worse than midfield
He is a track and distance winner last prep in June where he beat Sir Lamorak ( decent horse on his day) and the equal fav in AL Aabir- his issue is he has 18 runs firm tracks for a Bm 64 and and a Maiden 1200m victory- I do think he is a knock out chance if something goes silly ( southern France tear away leader possibly ?) – the issue with this horse in 15 slow or average temp races its run 2 thirds-
Little Mix
$21
Wide midfield
Her last win was a class 2 at Toowoomba over 1640- her first two since a 308 day break have been more than satisfactory but no 2400m form is the worry
Overall it’s a cow of a race to bet up in but the favourites looked horrible suspect
We are not here to sit on the fence so for our mandatory 5 units id be betting the following way
Desert Icon 3 units @ $6 to win
Fancy Man 1 unit $17
Alageron 1 unit $15
Profit is -15.80
