Saturday Race Preview
Racing returns to Randwick Tomorrow and with the spring-like weather the last few weeks and the better horses resuming it’s a great time to be in racing
One race I thought we might have an edge in from a punting Angle is the Group 3 Show County over 1200m
Let’s go through the runners and see where end up
TRACK BIAS ??
Starting Off with the track- it can be vital at Randwick with what the win is doing but the predicted wind is 22klm which should affect things too much. Historically they get right off the fence into lanes 4 in the straight
here so id suggest horses mapped to find the running line
Race Speed : SLOW
Typically slow run races are not awesome to load up on as the fact they go slow allows the lessor horses to be more competitive as the faster a race the more the cream and class rise to the top. Being a slow-run race
Always for more of a chance of a) suspect form and b) an upset
| Horse | Price | Comment |
| Bunenos Noches | $4.40 | 1st up here and is a stallion and this is the prep he needs to stand up and show he is a horse. One of the best 3yr olds of his generation he comes into this off a 900m trial and then a 1000m trial. He is the stables best horse but generally, the stable horses only win 7% first up. He handles soft ground and gets Dylan Gibbons who in my opinion is the best apprentice we have seen in the last 10 years but now without his claim, he has to mix it with the big boys so this is an awesome opportunity for him to associate himself with a top horse. Full credit to the stable for giving him a go. Interestingly he has only 2 goes at 1200m which are down the Flemington straight and all his other form is really not counting for a 1200m race as we know 1000 and 1100 form is a poor guide for assessing a 1200m race. The thing with he Flemington straight is it only suits horses with a turn of foot. He definitely has this right map here to land forward of midfield and get the last crack but I would suggest the lack of 1200m form and being first up is why the price looks so good. Interestingly in his first trial, he trialled against Extremely Lucky and that horse sat last and then beat him home albeit it was a slow run trial and sprint home for 400m ( form out of the trial has been good with I am Me winning along with Olentia. His second trial was also run very slow so not an ideal platform for hardness for him to try 1200m first time around a bend
First look at this horse I was very very keen but the more you pull him apart- no 1200m circle form- 1st up in this camp generally not 100%- muddling tempo- never seen the track- all lead me to think he is a risk tomorrow and they may take him on tomorrow |
| UCALLEDIT | $10 | Been well backed in the last few days opening at $21 albeit with 18 cent deduction. He is no star but what he is is a horse who won’t give up and rarely runs poorly. He gets a tricky map here and might be forced to go right forward or right back. He has 10 wins on this horse but they mainly are all 1400m range so 1200m will be a new challenge. He has won his last 2 races both at the Listed level at this track and now heads here with Bowman and off a freshen after being accepted in races the 2 previous weeks but scratching due to the bad gates. Whilst he doesn’t have 1200m form and that is the risk you take – he is clearly going well and if he was to land in front with his race fitness he could provide something to run down. As the track gets to the firmer side will help him- if any more moisture that will be against him- each-way claims |
| Rocketing By | $21 | Barrier 2 so he does no work but he more than likely drifts back in a very bad spot to be worse than midfield. Id love to own him given he has won some high-value races and has won $2m in earnings but he has synthetic hoof filler on and to be fair he went like he has 4 flat tyres first up. His last metro win was a Group 3 in October 2022- he will like the sting out but I can’t have him |
| Sky Lab | $71 | He has been in work a long time with 3 trials back in April and May and then a recent trial on the 9th of August. He goes enormous fresh with 2 wins from 5 and the other 3 he is only ever 3 lens off them- especially since the is only at 7% 1st up. His last metro win was February 2022 and whilst he has no 1200m form he was 1st up in $1m Hunter at NCLE off 224 days and went enormous behind Vilana and IN the Congo- he is definitely one to include in the exotics for 3rd and 4th for some value if you are betting that way- he will be out the back and minding his own business but it won’t surprise me to see him dart through and get some minor money |
| Argentia | $11 | Comes out of the I Am me race but missed most of the interference- she raced very keen that day and tossing the head not comfortable or happy- listening to reports it seemed she was very forward 1st up ( stable operates on 13% 1st up but is 16% 1st up with horses from another stable so id say limited upside with here- typically she goes back but they went forward ( and it backfired) 1st up and from the gate id suggest they will ride her to hit the line and aim for some minor money- I think she will have admirers with her race fitness 2nd up- she is very hit and miss- |
| Dragonstone | $9.50 | The Weights and Measures boys I think will support him as he drops significantly from his last few. That inside gate I don’t see as a great advantage and he will be back 3rd or 4th pair ( in a slow run race- not ideal) . His last metro win was a kitchen sink job where he won on a 7 day back up at his pet distance which is 1100m- he has had 10 goes here for the 1 win and 5 minor places but his biggest issue is 1200m- he cheated last time to run 2nd in the Group 2 sitting back off a solid tempo to steal 2nd but for mine, he is not a winning chance |
| Fender | $19 | I am amazed how this horse always seems to be in the market to a degree- his last metro win was May 2021- and that was a lowly Class 6 in QLD- his win before that was Bm78 in QLD- his 8 metro runs sine has seen him finish 3rd on two occasions albeit one of them was a Kosi in the $2m race – I don’t see him as a chance today in this field |
| Kalino | $3.80 | He is one of those rare Waller horses who can go right forward if he has to and he returned in great form 1st up. This horse is a very good consistent-“reliable horse”- with good solid benchmark credentials – his 2 goes at Group 3 level he has been $6.50 and $9.50 and finished btn 2lens and then ran 4th btn 1 len in a messy race with not everything in his favour- he will put himself on speed you would assume so he gets an awesome chance here to win first time at this level |
| Extremely Lucky | $3.30 | Gets a Cross Over Nose Band which might indicate he has a wind issue and it seems in his two trials there has been a real focus to get him to relax and settle. His trials have been visually good but his last trial was against “goats” so you expected him to trial well.
I do think he is the weak option in the market- he only has Adelaide form to start with and his best form has been in some very weak races- His one go at Group 2 was at 1200m- albeit hot form from that race with 9 metro winners from that race in 69 starters- but he was still beaten3.5 lens and what I didn’t like was his Last 200m was only 3rd best on the card- and horses who beat him home still ran home stronger the L200 – generally a sign the 1200m was too far. The thing I’m most against with him is all his “good form” is 900m to 1050m and that form is rarely relevant for 1200m races- so if you disregard that form as I do – he has no form and to take $3.30 is crazy- he might shit in but leave me right out of him |
So there you have it – a good solid race but I think it’s a good one to bet into as the favourite and maybe 2nd favourite look suspect and that throws up some value
Betting wise I think you could bet the following way and get a result
4 units Kalino
1 unit Buenos Nachoes ( bet late)
