Week 2 Preview: Rosehill on August 26th, 2023
We secured a win last week with Buenos Noches, who received a flawless 10/10 ride from the young talent Dylan Gibbons. The horse paid out at a favorable $6.60 BSP on Betfair, resulting in a profit of $1.60 to kick off the year.
The Rosehill track features a 6m rail from the 1500m to the WP, then narrows to 4m for the remaining stretch. Approximately 10ml of rain is anticipated for the week.
I anticipate that if we don’t receive any further rain, the track will favor an inside and forward position, particularly benefiting horses that excel in speed.
In the upcoming week, we are at Rosehill for a rather challenging race card. However, I’d like to delve into the mares race in Race 6 and explore the potential for making a profit.
Box Seat- on pace
She was a fantastic result for us last time with a big bet at $7 and she looks to have undeniable claims again from a very soft draw. She sat in the perfect position last run and was strong late and what I liked was she was still strong through the line with her sectionals indicating 1500m will be fine. If we get any rain I wouldn’t be keen but as it stands she looks a genuine winning chance
Worse Than Midfield
Funny, she has had 2 runs here btn 7 lens and 4.4 lens. She is a Group 3 winner over 1600m- that race has proven to be very poor with the only metro winners from that race being Rubusto- Token Capitalist and Rediener and none of them would be in the market here- so has some ability and whilst I love they are starting out at 1500m we only have 1 1030m trial also. Inside gate for a horse who gets back is generally not great either and for mine looking for others
28 days between her last run where she won a Saturday race at Randwick ( amazingly led from a wide gate which is very unlike the camp) Camaguey ran better time that day and we know his no star and 6 runners from the race have since run for 0 winners. She was wide that day and the effort was great .I must say this horse had really good form in Europe so I want to respect her if they end up in that midfield spot.Her two runs at Rosehill has seen her btn 5 and 10 lens so she might be one that prefers the bigger track like Randwick
At best she sits worse than midfield and finished behind Powerful peg Last start- even though she did no work in the run she still wasn’t as good as PP so I cant have her in this despite the low draw as she has no speed and a great rule to live by is no speed = no class so hard to see her turning the tables
Midfield wide or outside leader (yuk)
She was $3.60 to $4.50 first up- she went forward and sat in the worst spot of racing in the Outside leader spot and still fought on to run second- the big worry was it was a bunched finish. She can only improve on how she paraded and she has the issue if they are neutral from the gate they could easily be 3 and 4 wide the trip here so she might have to roll and can end up OSL again which could leave her a sitting shot. She is the best horse in the race so can win
She has speed and that will help her a lot- however this is a fair class rise and whilst not out of it especially if she is given a soft time- she will be walking late. Her hope is the fence is on fire and her natural speed finds her a conveyor belt track to help her fall in
Midfield to Back
She has won her last 2 both at midweek level- she is going as best as she can but if a few others turn up they are better than her and happy to be against her
Worse Than Midfield
More chance me eating a Salad than this winning- not if it cut through the infield
3 and 4 wide forward of midfield
Gets a horror map- although last start here it got a Kerrin mcevoy special and fell into 4th in a similar class over 1200m- it now goes to 1500m and looks to get no favours and happy to take it on despite Australia’s best young rider in Dylan Gibbons in the saddle
Will try and lead Lolly yeats but not sure its fast enough
She is now 4th run into the first prep so a big ask as it steps up in trip- since its last run 24 days ago its had a soft trial . Her form has been good reading 121 but the Hawksbury win has seen only 1 winner from 9 runners- run in horrible time. Her effort to run 2nd at Rosehill this distance has been a great form race with 6 metro winners coming from the race – from 11 starters- albeit that race was run in average time also- I think this horse whilst promising has to improve 2-4 lens to beat some of these and she is the soft one in the market albeit at least she brings different form which most don’t
Midfield and wide
Dual accepted in a few places and it has none here so assume she will come out
So overall it’s a typical mares race that makes it tricky to bet into with a few of them with similar form, betting wise I have to bet to the map and will be be as follows
Powerful Peg 2 units $6.50
Powerful Peg 3 units Call Di bet late